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</style>
<title>Data Description</title>
<script type="text/x-mathjax-config">MathJax.Hub.Config({tex2jax:{inlineMath:[['$$$','$$$']]}});</script><script src="http://cdn.mathjax.org/mathjax/latest/MathJax.js?config=TeX-AMS-MML_HTMLorMML"></script>
</head>
<body>
<h1>Data Description</h1>

<h4>Christopher Gandrud and Cassandra Grafstrom</h4>

<p>The data set <em>GB_FRED_cpi_2007.csv</em> was used for all analyses in the paper ''Inflated Expectations: How
government partisanship shapes monetary policy bureaucrats’ inflation forecasts''.</p>

<p>The table below gives a brief description of each variable and its source.
Please see the paper's text for detailed descriptions of transformations
that were made to the variables.</p>

<p>The data set was amalgamated and variable transformations were made using source code available at: <a href="https://github.com/christophergandrud/GreenBook/tree/master/Data/DataCreation">https://github.com/christophergandrud/GreenBook/tree/master/Data/DataCreation</a>.</p>

<p>All data is for the United States.</p>

<h2>Variable descriptions and sources</h2>

<h3>Notes</h3>

<ul>
<li><p>''Authors'' means that the study's authors created the variable using generally available information.</p></li>
<li><p>''FRED'' refers to the St. Louis Federal Reserve's FRED statistical service. See <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/</a>. Most recently accessed May 2014.</p></li>
<li><p>''infoplease'' data is available at: <a href="http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0774721.html">http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0774721.html</a>. Most recently accessed May 2014.</p></li>
</ul>


<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>  Variable ID      </th>
<th> Description                </th>
<th> Source </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td> <code>Quarter</code>           </td>
<td> Quarter with <code>.1</code> indicating the first quarter. </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>year</code>              </td>
<td> Year                       </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>GP_CPI_QTR*</code>       </td>
<td> Greenbook inflation forecast. Suffix indicates how many quarters in advance it was made. <code>0</code> indicates forecasts made in the present quarter. </td>
<td> US Federal Reserve </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>deflator</code>          </td>
<td> Quarterly % change in the GNP deflator </td>
<td> FRED </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>cpi.change</code>        </td>
<td> Quarterly % change in the consumer price index </td>
<td> FRED </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>president</code>         </td>
<td> Surname of the sitting president. </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>term</code> </td>
<td> President's term number </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>presTerm</code> </td>
<td> Combination of <code>president</code> and <code>term</code> </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>EligibleReElect</code> </td>
<td> Dummy indicating if the president is eligible for re-election (<code>1</code>) or not (<code>0</code>). </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>pres_party</code> </td>
<td> Dummy indicating the president's party. <code>0</code> is Republican. <code>1</code> is Democrat. </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>pres_election</code> </td>
<td> Dummy indicating if the quarter has a presidential election (<code>1</code>) or not (<code>0</code>). </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>time_to_election</code> </td>
<td> Quarters until the next presidential election. <code>0</code> is an election quarter. </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>ElectionPeriod</code> </td>
<td> Dummy indicating (<code>1</code>) whether or not (<code>0</code>) the quarter is in the election period defined as the election quarter and the quarter before. See also <code>ElectionPeriod4</code>. </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>senate_dems</code> </td>
<td> Number of Senate Democrats. </td>
<td> infoplease </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>senate_rep</code>  </td>
<td> Number of Senate Republicans, </td>
<td> infoplease </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>house_dems</code> </td>
<td> Number of House Democrats. </td>
<td> infoplease </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>house_rep</code>  </td>
<td> Number of House Republicans. </td>
<td> infoplease </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>senate_dem_rep</code> </td>
<td> Senate Democrats as a percentage of Senate Republicans. </td>
<td> Authors' calculations from infoplease data </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>house_dem_rep</code> </td>
<td> House Democrats as a percentage of House Republicans. </td>
<td> Authors' calculations from infoplease data </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>manufoutput</code> </td>
<td>  Manufacturing output % change from same quarter in previous year. </td>
<td> FRED </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>recession</code> </td>
<td> US recession dummy (<code>1</code> is a recession). </td>
<td> FRED </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>sales</code> </td>
<td> US real retail &amp; food sales % change from quarter in previous year. </td>
<td> FRED </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>DebtGDP</code> </td>
<td> Quarterly US Federal government debt as a % of GDP. </td>
<td> Authors' calculations based on FRED data </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>ExpenditureGDP</code> </td>
<td> Quarterly US Federal government expenditures as a $ of GDP. </td>
<td> Authors' calculations based on FRED data </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>PotentialGDP</code> </td>
<td> Potential GDP as a % of GDP. </td>
<td> Authors' calculations based on FRED data </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>UNRATE</code> </td>
<td> Unemployment rate. </td>
<td> FRED </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><code>GB_Unemp*</code> </td>
<td> Greenbook unemployment rate forecast. Suffix indicates how many quarters in advance it was made. For example,<code>0</code> indicates forecasts made in the present quarter. </td>
<td> US Federal Reserve </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>FedFunds</code> </td>
<td> Federal funds rate. </td>
<td> FRED </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>FedFunds2qChange</code> </td>
<td> Federal funds rate change between quarter 0 and quarter 2. </td>
<td> Authors' calculations based on FRED data </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>DiscountRate</code> </td>
<td> Discount rate. </td>
<td> Compiled from FRED data by Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>DiscountTrate*</code> </td>
<td> Change in the discount rate between quarter 0 and some other quarter specified in the suffix. For example, the suffix <code>1qchange</code> indicates a change from the previous quarter. </td>
<td> Authors' calculations based on FRED data </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>DeficitGDP</code> </td>
<td> Annual US Federal government deficit as a % of GDP. </td>
<td> FRED </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>pres_party_name</code> </td>
<td> President's party name. </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>error.prop.deflator.*</code> </td>
<td> Inflation forecasting error. The suffix indicates when the forecast was made. For example, <code>q0</code> means that the forecast was made in the quarter being forecasted for. </td>
<td> Author's calculations based on US Federal Reserve and FRED data </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>GlobalModel</code> </td>
<td> Dummy indicating that the quarter was from or after 1996 (<code>1</code>) when the Global Forecasting model was introduced or before (<code>0</code>). </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>Chair</code> </td>
<td> Surname of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors chairperson. </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>ElectionPeriod4</code> </td>
<td> Dummy indicating that the quarter was in the presidential election quarter or the three quarters before (<code>1</code>) or otherwise (<code>0</code>). </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>productivity_change</code> </td>
<td> Change % of US non-farm labour productivity from the previous quarter at the annual rate. </td>
<td> United States Bureau of Labor Statistics </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>WTI_crude_price</code> </td>
<td> Change in the West Texas Crude oil price from the same quarter in the previous year. </td>
<td> FRED </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>num_conflicts</code> </td>
<td> Number of armed conflicts per year which the United States participated. </td>
<td> Uppsala Conflict Data Program/Peach Research Institute Oslo </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>DemAppointPerc</code> </td>
<td> Percentage of Federal Reserve Board of Governors members appointed by a democratic president. </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> <code>DemAppontPerc_Lag3</code> </td>
<td> <code>DemAppointPerc</code> lagged by 3 quarters. </td>
<td> Authors </td>
</tr>
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</table>

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